How Picks Work
BETNDRAW runs two kinds of prediction markets — pari-mutuel pools and fixed odds. In a pari-mutuel market your payout depends on how everyone else stakes; in a fixed-odds market your return is locked the moment you pick. Here's exactly how each one pays out.
Pick a Market
Browse open prediction markets on the home page. Each market poses a real-world question with two or more outcomes — for example "Will Team A win the match?" The badge tells you whether it is pari-mutuel or fixed-odds.
Choose Your Side
Select the outcome you believe will happen. In a pari-mutuel market you can see how much is staked on each side; in a fixed-odds market you see the locked odds for each side before you commit.
Enter Your Stake
Type the amount you want to pick — the minimum is $1.00. Your stake is deducted from your wallet immediately. In a fixed-odds market the current odds are locked to your pick at that moment.
Collect Your Payout
When an admin resolves the market, winners are paid automatically. Pari-mutuel winners share the pool in proportion to their stake; fixed-odds winners are paid their stake multiplied by their locked odds.
Two Ways to Pick
Every market is one of these two types — the badge on each market tells you which.
Pari-Mutuel
You pick against the crowd
- All stakes go into one pool; winners share it in proportion to their stake.
- Your payout is not known until the market closes — a bigger losing pool means a bigger win.
- The platform fee is capped at the losing pool, so winners can never get back less than their stake.
Fixed-Odds
You pick against the house
- Each side has set odds. Your return is locked the instant you place the pick.
- Payout is simply your stake × your locked odds — the crowd cannot change it.
- Losing stakes and the margin built into the odds are the platform's; winners are paid in full.
The Payout Formulas
Pari-mutuel payout
Step 1
Deduct Platform Fee
fee = totalPool × feePercent
fee is capped at loserPool
distributable = totalPool − fee
Step 2
Calculate Your Share
(yourStake / winnerPool)
× distributable
Step 3
Credit to Wallet
currentBalance + yourPayout
(capped at maxWalletBalance)
Fixed-odds payout
Stake × Locked Odds
odds are locked when you pick
losing stakes stay with the house
credited, capped at maxWalletBalance
Key insight: in a pari-mutuel market you play against other players and the platform only skims a capped fee; in a fixed-odds market you play against the house at odds you locked in. Either way, a resolved market never charges a winner more than they staked.
Worked Examples
Real numbers for every outcome — clear wins, even splits, everyone winning, nobody winning, capped fees, and refunds.
Pari-Mutuel Examples
Pool-based markets shown with a 5% platform fee. Watch how the same pool pays out differently depending on the result.
Clear Majority Wrong
"Will Team A win the match?" · Pari-mutuel · 5% fee
Picks Placed
| Player | Side | Stake | Payout |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alice | Yes | $100 | $316.67 |
| Bob | Yes | $50 | $158.33 |
| Carol | No | $200 | Lost stake |
| Dave | No | $150 | Lost stake |
Pool Breakdown
Most of the money sat on the losing side, so the $350 losing pool (minus the $25 fee) is shared by the two winners — Alice and Bob more than triple their stake.
Even 50 / 50 Split
"Will the price go up today?" · Pari-mutuel · 5% fee
Picks Placed
| Player | Side | Stake | Payout |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alice | Yes | $100 | $190.00 |
| Bob | No | $100 | Lost stake |
Pool Breakdown
With equal money on both sides, the single winner gets her stake back plus the losing pool minus the fee — $100 staked returns $190.
Everyone Backed the Winner
"Will the festival go ahead as planned?" · Pari-mutuel · 5% fee
Picks Placed
| Player | Side | Stake | Payout |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alice | Yes | $100 | $100.00Stake returned |
| Bob | Yes | $200 | $200.00Stake returned |
| Carol | Yes | $100 | $100.00Stake returned |
Pool Breakdown
When everyone is on the winning side there is no losing pool, so there is nothing to win and no fee to charge. Every stake is simply returned in full — nobody profits, nobody loses.
Tiny Losing Pool — Fee Capped
"Will it rain tomorrow?" · Pari-mutuel · 5% fee
Picks Placed
| Player | Side | Stake | Payout |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alice | Yes | $940 | $940.00Stake returned |
| Bob | Yes | $40 | $40.00Stake returned |
| Carol | No | $20 | Lost stake |
Pool Breakdown
A normal 5% fee would be $50.00, but that is more than the entire $20 losing pool, so the fee is capped at $20.00. Both winners get their exact stake back — the platform absorbs the shortfall so a winner never loses money.
Nobody Backed the Winner
"Will the match be abandoned?" · Pari-mutuel · 5% fee
Picks Placed
| Player | Side | Stake | Payout |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alice | No | $200 | Swept to house |
| Bob | No | $300 | Swept to house |
Pool Breakdown
No one staked on the winning outcome, so there is no one to pay. Every stake is swept to the platform and recorded on the ledger so the pool balances to zero.
Too Few Participants — Refunded
"Will the keynote start on time?" · Pari-mutuel · 5% fee
Picks Placed
| Player | Side | Stake | Payout |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alice | Yes | $200 | $200.00Refunded in full |
| Bob | No | $300 | $300.00Refunded in full |
Pool Breakdown
A market needs at least 10 unique participants to resolve. With only 2, it is cancelled and every stake is refunded in full — win or lose, no fee is charged. The same rule protects fixed-odds markets.
Fixed-Odds Examples
Bookmaker-style markets where each winner is paid stake × locked odds, whatever the crowd does.
Standard Fixed-Odds Market
"Will Player X score first?" · Fixed-odds · locked odds
Picks Placed
| Player | Side | Stake | Payout |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alice | Yes | $100 | $250.00$100 × 2.50 |
| Bob | Yes | $40 | $100.00$40 × 2.50 |
| Carol | No | $200 | Lost stake |
| Dave | No | $150 | Lost stake |
Pool Breakdown
Yes was locked at 2.50, so $1 staked returns $2.50 no matter how many others won. The two winners are paid $350 from the $490 staked; the $140 difference is the losing stakes plus the house margin.
Heavy Favourite Wins
"Will the champion advance?" · Fixed-odds · locked odds
Picks Placed
| Player | Side | Stake | Payout |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alice | Yes | $500 | $600.00$500 × 1.20 |
| Bob | Yes | $300 | $360.00$300 × 1.20 |
| Carol | No | $50 | Lost stake |
Pool Breakdown
When a short-priced favourite (1.20) wins, payouts of $960 can exceed the $850 staked. In fixed-odds the platform carries that risk — every winner is still paid their full locked odds.
Nobody Backed the Winner
"Will the game go to a shootout?" · Fixed-odds · locked odds
Picks Placed
| Player | Side | Stake | Payout |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alice | No | $200 | Swept to house |
| Bob | No | $100 | Swept to house |
Pool Breakdown
With no picks on the winning side there are no payouts, so every stake stays with the platform — the fixed-odds version of an unbacked result.
Pick Rules & Limits
Ready to play? Browse open markets on the home page, or read our full FAQ for more details.