Prediction Markets

How Picks Work

BETNDRAW runs two kinds of prediction markets — pari-mutuel pools and fixed odds. In a pari-mutuel market your payout depends on how everyone else stakes; in a fixed-odds market your return is locked the moment you pick. Here's exactly how each one pays out.

01

Pick a Market

Browse open prediction markets on the home page. Each market poses a real-world question with two or more outcomes — for example "Will Team A win the match?" The badge tells you whether it is pari-mutuel or fixed-odds.

02

Choose Your Side

Select the outcome you believe will happen. In a pari-mutuel market you can see how much is staked on each side; in a fixed-odds market you see the locked odds for each side before you commit.

03

Enter Your Stake

Type the amount you want to pick — the minimum is $1.00. Your stake is deducted from your wallet immediately. In a fixed-odds market the current odds are locked to your pick at that moment.

04

Collect Your Payout

When an admin resolves the market, winners are paid automatically. Pari-mutuel winners share the pool in proportion to their stake; fixed-odds winners are paid their stake multiplied by their locked odds.

Two Ways to Pick

Every market is one of these two types — the badge on each market tells you which.

Pari-Mutuel

You pick against the crowd

  • All stakes go into one pool; winners share it in proportion to their stake.
  • Your payout is not known until the market closes — a bigger losing pool means a bigger win.
  • The platform fee is capped at the losing pool, so winners can never get back less than their stake.

Fixed-Odds

You pick against the house

  • Each side has set odds. Your return is locked the instant you place the pick.
  • Payout is simply your stake × your locked odds — the crowd cannot change it.
  • Losing stakes and the margin built into the odds are the platform's; winners are paid in full.

The Payout Formulas

Pari-mutuel payout

Step 1

Deduct Platform Fee

totalPool = sum of all stakes
fee = totalPool × feePercent
fee is capped at loserPool
distributable = totalPool − fee

Step 2

Calculate Your Share

yourPayout =
   (yourStake / winnerPool)
   × distributable

Step 3

Credit to Wallet

newBalance =
   currentBalance + yourPayout

(capped at maxWalletBalance)

Fixed-odds payout

Stake × Locked Odds

yourPayout = yourStake × lockedOdds
odds are locked when you pick
losing stakes stay with the house
credited, capped at maxWalletBalance

Key insight: in a pari-mutuel market you play against other players and the platform only skims a capped fee; in a fixed-odds market you play against the house at odds you locked in. Either way, a resolved market never charges a winner more than they staked.

Worked Examples

Real numbers for every outcome — clear wins, even splits, everyone winning, nobody winning, capped fees, and refunds.

Pari-Mutuel Examples

Pool-based markets shown with a 5% platform fee. Watch how the same pool pays out differently depending on the result.

Clear Majority Wrong

"Will Team A win the match?" · Pari-mutuel · 5% fee

Yes wins

Picks Placed

PlayerSideStakePayout
AliceYes$100
$316.67
BobYes$50
$158.33
CarolNo$200Lost stake
DaveNo$150Lost stake

Pool Breakdown

Total pool$500
Winner pool$150
Loser pool$350
Platform fee (5%)$25.00
Distributable$475.00

Most of the money sat on the losing side, so the $350 losing pool (minus the $25 fee) is shared by the two winners — Alice and Bob more than triple their stake.

Even 50 / 50 Split

"Will the price go up today?" · Pari-mutuel · 5% fee

Yes wins

Picks Placed

PlayerSideStakePayout
AliceYes$100
$190.00
BobNo$100Lost stake

Pool Breakdown

Total pool$200
Winner pool$100
Loser pool$100
Platform fee (5%)$10.00
Distributable$190.00

With equal money on both sides, the single winner gets her stake back plus the losing pool minus the fee — $100 staked returns $190.

Everyone Backed the Winner

"Will the festival go ahead as planned?" · Pari-mutuel · 5% fee

Yes wins

Picks Placed

PlayerSideStakePayout
AliceYes$100
$100.00Stake returned
BobYes$200
$200.00Stake returned
CarolYes$100
$100.00Stake returned

Pool Breakdown

Total pool$400
Winner pool$400
Loser pool$0
Fee (capped)$0
Distributable$400

When everyone is on the winning side there is no losing pool, so there is nothing to win and no fee to charge. Every stake is simply returned in full — nobody profits, nobody loses.

Tiny Losing Pool — Fee Capped

"Will it rain tomorrow?" · Pari-mutuel · 5% fee

Yes wins

Picks Placed

PlayerSideStakePayout
AliceYes$940
$940.00Stake returned
BobYes$40
$40.00Stake returned
CarolNo$20Lost stake

Pool Breakdown

Total pool$1,000
Winner pool$980
Loser pool$20
Fee at 5%$50.00
Fee (capped)$20.00
Distributable$980.00

A normal 5% fee would be $50.00, but that is more than the entire $20 losing pool, so the fee is capped at $20.00. Both winners get their exact stake back — the platform absorbs the shortfall so a winner never loses money.

Nobody Backed the Winner

"Will the match be abandoned?" · Pari-mutuel · 5% fee

Yes wins · no backers

Picks Placed

PlayerSideStakePayout
AliceNo$200Swept to house
BobNo$300Swept to house

Pool Breakdown

Total pool$500
Winner pool$0
Loser pool$500
Swept to house$500

No one staked on the winning outcome, so there is no one to pay. Every stake is swept to the platform and recorded on the ledger so the pool balances to zero.

Too Few Participants — Refunded

"Will the keynote start on time?" · Pari-mutuel · 5% fee

Cancelled

Picks Placed

PlayerSideStakePayout
AliceYes$200
$200.00Refunded in full
BobNo$300
$300.00Refunded in full

Pool Breakdown

Participants2 / 10
Total pool$500
Platform fee (5%)$0
Refunded$500

A market needs at least 10 unique participants to resolve. With only 2, it is cancelled and every stake is refunded in full — win or lose, no fee is charged. The same rule protects fixed-odds markets.

Fixed-Odds Examples

Bookmaker-style markets where each winner is paid stake × locked odds, whatever the crowd does.

Standard Fixed-Odds Market

"Will Player X score first?" · Fixed-odds · locked odds

Yes wins

Picks Placed

PlayerSideStakePayout
AliceYes$100
$250.00$100 × 2.50
BobYes$40
$100.00$40 × 2.50
CarolNo$200Lost stake
DaveNo$150Lost stake

Pool Breakdown

Total staked$490
Paid to winners$350
House margin$140

Yes was locked at 2.50, so $1 staked returns $2.50 no matter how many others won. The two winners are paid $350 from the $490 staked; the $140 difference is the losing stakes plus the house margin.

Heavy Favourite Wins

"Will the champion advance?" · Fixed-odds · locked odds

Yes wins

Picks Placed

PlayerSideStakePayout
AliceYes$500
$600.00$500 × 1.20
BobYes$300
$360.00$300 × 1.20
CarolNo$50Lost stake

Pool Breakdown

Total staked$850
Paid to winners$960
House result−$110

When a short-priced favourite (1.20) wins, payouts of $960 can exceed the $850 staked. In fixed-odds the platform carries that risk — every winner is still paid their full locked odds.

Nobody Backed the Winner

"Will the game go to a shootout?" · Fixed-odds · locked odds

Yes wins · no backers

Picks Placed

PlayerSideStakePayout
AliceNo$200Swept to house
BobNo$100Swept to house

Pool Breakdown

Total staked$300
Paid to winners$0
Kept by house$300

With no picks on the winning side there are no payouts, so every stake stays with the platform — the fixed-odds version of an unbacked result.

Pick Rules & Limits

Market typesPari-mutuel & fixed-odds
Minimum pick$1.00 per market
Maximum single pickSet by admin per market
Max total stake per marketPer-user cap, configurable by admin
Minimum participants10 unique — else cancelled & refunded
Platform feePari-mutuel: admin %, capped at loser pool · Fixed-odds: built into the odds
Wallet balance capOverflow redirected to platform

Ready to play? Browse open markets on the home page, or read our full FAQ for more details.